Just in case anyone asks, since I've added new prop bets since the market opened, the questions that are "within X days" are starting from the day the prop bet was added.
Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For any answer involving a live address by a leader: pre-recorded speeches broadcast post-mortem will not count toward resolution.
Update 2026-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A "major attack" is defined as an incident where at least 5 people die. This includes drones, shooting, and other methods of attack.
Update 2026-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): All resolution criteria must be met by the market close time of May 31st, 2026.
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@traders
NEW PROP BETS:
- Houthis/Yemen officially announce they are joining the war
- Houthis launch a confirmed attack on a US Navy vessel
- Chinese-mediated ceasefire or de-escalation framework occurs
- A senior IRGC commander or provincial governor publicly defects
- Iran-linked hackers cause a major disruption (outage >24 hr) to US/Israel
- Crude oil prices exceed $110/barrel
New prop bet ideas:
-US "boots on the ground" in Iran
-US gas prices top 2022 peak
-The Strait of Hormuz starts to see activity ramp up again
-Donald Trump makes a noticeable attempt at de-escalation
-The Iranian government makes a noticeable attempt at de-escalation
-Iran is still the top news story on CNN on March 31
@traders
NEW PROP BETS:
- Houthis/Yemen officially announce they are joining the war
- Houthis launch a confirmed attack on a US Navy vessel
- Chinese-mediated ceasefire or de-escalation framework occurs
- A senior IRGC commander or provincial governor publicly defects
- Iran-linked hackers cause a major disruption (outage >24 hr) to US/Israel
- Crude oil prices exceed $110/barrel
@traders
NEW PROP BETS ADDED:
- Mojtaba Khamenei is publicly announced as Supreme Leader within 14 days
- Mojtaba Khamenei is killed by a US/Israel strike within 30 days
- Israel launches a full ground invasion into Lebanon
- QatarEnergy resumes LNG production within 14 days
- A US Navy vessel is struck or damaged by an Iranian anti-ship missile in the Strait of Hormuz
If you want any others, leave a comment below!
@prismatic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Austin_bar_shooting
4 people are now killed. 13 are still injured, so it seems likely that this will resolve soon.
@GuyCohen yeah its likely that 1 person may die though since there are quite a few in serious condition still
@MachiNi No it should not. If I read it correctly, it says that the Republicans blocked the motion to debate the War Powers Act resolution.
@prismatic They will not name a new Supreme Leader to have him immediately bombed. I suspect the true source for this is the BRICSlop accounts.
4 dead if you count the shooter, 3 more on critical support
https://www.fox7austin.com/news/austin-mass-shooting-bufords-live-updates
@GuyCohenGuyCohen I mean final death counts might reach 5 considering another 3 were in critical condition