Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be leader of Cuba on January 1st 2027?
80
Ṁ2.6kṀ14k2027
38%
chance
7
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The leader is whoever the de facto leader of Cuba is, regardless of their specific job title. Currently this is First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Miguel Díaz-Canel.
If there is a complicated messy civil war, this goes by who controls the capital and governing apparatus. I intend to go by a similar standard to the late CIA World Factbook (RIP) or the Wikipedia infobox, though I don't commit to matching them if they're outdated or inaccurate.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027?
Raul Castro dies before 2027?
41% chance
Will Delcy Rodríguez still be President of Venezuela on May 4, 2026?
86% chance
Who will be Head of State of Haiti at the start of 2027?
Will the USA lift the embargo on Cuba by Jan 1st 2032?
70% chance
Will Xi Jinping be the leader of China at the end of 2027?
84% chance
Who will be President of the United States on January 21, 2037?
Will Kim Jong Un be the leader of North Korea at the end of 2027?
86% chance
Who will be President of the United States on 1 Jan 2027?
Will the next US president lift the embargo on Cuba?
22% chance
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Who will be paramount leader of Iran on January 1st 2027?
Raul Castro dies before 2027?
41% chance
Will Delcy Rodríguez still be President of Venezuela on May 4, 2026?
86% chance
Who will be Head of State of Haiti at the start of 2027?
Will the USA lift the embargo on Cuba by Jan 1st 2032?
70% chance
Will Xi Jinping be the leader of China at the end of 2027?
84% chance
Who will be President of the United States on January 21, 2037?
Will Kim Jong Un be the leader of North Korea at the end of 2027?
86% chance
Who will be President of the United States on 1 Jan 2027?
Will the next US president lift the embargo on Cuba?
22% chance