
In 2028, will democrats have a major presidential candidate from the centrist wing of the party?
11
Ṁ190Ṁ3712028
62%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will take "Centrist wing of the party" to mean "among the 40% most right wing democratic congressmen per dw-nominate". If it's a real outsider without a dw nominate score, will try to clarify as I go.
(For comparison, Biden was about the 50th percentile in the 11th congress, so this would require someone slightly more conservative than Biden relative to the party average).
"Major presidential candidate" means one of the top three candidates in the primary by delegate shares (conditional on winning at least one state).
(Since this may end up being mildly subjective, I won't bet)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
2028 Democratic nominee?
Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?
Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?
In 2028, who will represent the Democratic Party for President of the USA?
Will a Democrat be elected president in 2028?
58% chance
Will a democrat win the 2028 presidential election?
58% chance
Democrats win 2028 election?
58% chance
Who will be the democratic nominee for president in 2028
Will a Democrat win the 2028 Presidential Election?
58% chance
Who will be the Democratic Party’s nominee for Vice-President in 2028?