MANIFOLD
Will an AI be able to beat ascension 0 of Slay the Spire 2, when it's released?
7
Ṁ100Ṁ294
2027
14%
chance

  • Update 2026-03-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will resolve this market two weeks after the game's release. Resolves no if no credible evidence of a success case is provided. Key rules for what counts:

    • A human operator may assist with input, but no coaching during the run

    • A human operator may update context between failed runs to calibrate the system

    • The creator plans to personally attempt a few runs with the latest foundation models shortly after release

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Must it be at all consistent? If I set up a large number of instances on Google Cloud and let them run for a few days, and then I get a single success out of 10000 attempts, does this resolve YES?

@qhyzn are you really willing to do that?

A good amount of what this market is measuring is people's willingness to throw AI at solving new recreational games

early access release or date when it exits early access?

@2b3o4o I'll resolve this market in two weeks if there is no credible evidence provided of a success case. ( Note: I'll likely attempt a few runs w/ the latest foundation models in a few days if it's not terribly inconvenient to do so ) . For it to count - it's ok for a human to assist with input, however there should be no coaching provided during the run. It is permissable for a human operator to update context after a failed run to calibrate the system on.

Apologies about my earlier comment triggering the summary bot to falsely state that the market will resolve a few days from the release.

Has this been tried for Slay the Spire 1?

@rayman2000 Yes. There are some that aren't bad, but they relied heavily on brute search/simulation strategies, which are largely infeasible a few days after release.

Every LLM approach I've seen so far were terrible

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