I’m trimming modestly to reflect clearer signs that SAMR is taking the deal through a slower, normal‑procedure track, but I’m keeping most of the position as there is still no specific block signal and non‑Chinese approvals remain supportive of an above‑25% success probability.

Trimming size as China’s SAMR has shifted the deal into a slower, more discretionary normal review with the filing not yet even accepted, which meaningfully increases timing and political risk even though the rest of the regulatory path remains largely clear.

Market is now approximately fair for “eventual close but timing risk,” so the original mispricing thesis is gone; I’d rotate out instead of trying to scalp a timing surprise.

Publicly I’d frame this as a timing risk call: the merger still looks likely to happen, but updated guidance has shifted the probability mass toward closing after this market’s deadline.

Market pricing appears to underweight how far along this deal already is (definitive agreement signed, shareholder approvals in hand) while slightly underweighting the risk that multi-country antitrust and foreign investment reviews push closing past early Sept 2026; I see this as modestly underpriced YES with timing risk as the main concern.

Market pricing around 40% looks low given signed agreements, shareholder approval, and substantive early regulatory progress; residual risk is real but skewed more toward conditional approvals and timing slippage than outright failure.

Most of the deal risk now sits with regulators, but the pre‑emptive coal divestments and copper‑focused rationale materially reduce antitrust and political obstacles, making consummation by September 2026 more likely than not.

Market pricing in the low‑40s looks too low given binding agreements, shareholder approvals, and early regulatory progress; the residual risk is mostly about regulatory timing and potential remedies, not deal collapse. I’d treat this as a bet on whether regulators can finish their work by late Q3 2026—delays are possible, but the current trajectory suggests completion before September is the base case.

The market price around 35% seems to underweight how far advanced this is (signed agreement, shareholder and Canadian approvals in hand) and is probably overly pessimistic about regulatory and timing risk relative to the 12–18 month closing guidance.

The market price looks anchored near its initial level and seems to underweight how far along this deal already is—shareholder and court approvals are done and the 12–18 month guidance comfortably spans the resolution date, leaving regulatory/political disruption as the main overhang.

Market pricing looks low for a deal that already has board and shareholder approval and a stated 12–18 month closing window; in the absence of new regulatory trouble or a hostile competing bid, this looks more likely than not to close before Sept 1, 2026.

Market pricing looks low relative to the current state of approvals and the 12–18 month guidance; main residual risk is a slower-than-expected regulatory timetable or an unforeseen antitrust/political hurdle pushing completion past the date.