This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.
In ambiguous cases, I will try to match the resolution of the market to who Wikipedia lists in their TIME Person of The Year article.
1,000People are also trading
@Chumchulum His victims were between 14 and 17, a pedophile is attracted to prepubescent children. Everyone is just wrong about it in their moral outrage. It doesn't change his conclusion about epstein, so it's just choosing not to lie for the sake of lying.
James Talarico, Jon Ossoff, and some sort of consolidated prediction markets option [prediction markets and/or their companies or CEOs including Coplan and Mansour and Lopez Lara, etc] would be some reasonable options in my opinion. Would really prefer to avoid a situation like last year, so I suggest that the prediction market option actually encompass all variations.
@PierreS market: https://manifold.markets/PierreS/will-moltbook-be-time-person-of-the (I know you already know, since it's yours!)
@realDonaldTrump Im realizing my use of capitalization totally makes my comment look like it was written by ai haha.
@bens idk if there's a way to cleanly operationalize this. Definitely distinct from Gen Alpha though.
@Joshua How would this market resolve if the winner was Elon Musk and Teslas Full self driving feature
@Joshua 👍 I think of waymo and Uber as not making their own cars, so wondered if a car manufacturer would count as yes in that list. Thanks