Doesn't really seem like they're on pace based on FY2023 reporting and FY2024 reporting so far: https://www.againstmalaria.com/DonationStatistics.aspx

Would be extremely happy to be wrong here!

@Weepinbell So, $500 M total on Mar 2 2023. FY 2023,2024, & FYTD 2025 revenue looks like 58 M, 92 M, 138 M from the graph as updated today (Apr 29 2025). So at most $788 M total so far, so $212 M to go. In fact, it's less total raised so far, as the tweet was sent at the beginning of march, this is at most a 25 M difference, and probably something like 18 M. So could happen. Idk what led to the spixe in 2021 2022 and 2025. If it keeps that rate for the rest of this year and next year, it looks like they'll make it. But given how FYTD for previous years appears to cover well more than half for all years aside last two (which are around half), it seems to point to 138 max to be added from now to the end of this year.

But the years with a high fraction after YTD are the low (compared to the previous spike) years of the last couple?

If that happens, and if next year is another spike year of the similar level (alternatively, the pre YTD is a high fraction this year, but next year turns out to raise twice as much as this year, which I find unlikely), then they'll reach $1 B.

So, certainly seems more doable than when you commented, but I'm still betting NO

EDIT: Oh, oops. The financial year ends in 30 June.

@Xelad102c Still looks about right. FTD 2026 up to now (March) is 62.8 M. Total up to end of FY2025 is 762.3 M, best year was FY 2025 at 148 M, so if they have just as good a year for FY 2026 and 2027 then they'd have 762.3 + 148 by the end of June, and then +74 by end of december, for a total of 984 M. Currently they have 64 M in FY 2026 and it's halfway through and previous years YTD was higher (e.g. 141/148 in 2025 was already done by March, 42/87 in 2024, 34/56 in 2023, 109/120 in 2022, 100/107 in 2021, ...).

So I think I can say by end of calendar year 2026 it'll be ≤ 950 M, and more likely to be like 900 M