Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on the duration of active military conflict between the United States and Iran. Resolution will be determined by tracking major news sources including CNN, Al Jazeera, Reuters, and official statements from the US Department of Defense. The conflict is considered ongoing as long as coordinated military strikes, missile/drone attacks, or significant combat operations continue between the parties. The market resolves to the number of whole weeks from the start of the conflict (February 28, 2026) until a ceasefire agreement is reached, a unilateral cessation of hostilities is declared by all major parties, or military operations effectively cease for a continuous period of 4 weeks.

Background

On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States began joint air attacks on Iran aimed at regime change, and Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against Israel and against US bases and US allies in the region. US President Donald Trump has predicted the war with Iran could last "four weeks." Israel's military chief said it's moving to the "next phase" of the war with Iran after carrying out 2,500 strikes with more than 6,000 weapons. Fighting dramatically intensified on Monday, when Hezbollah announced it fired rockets into Israel, hours after the militia's leader Naim Qassem vowed to "fulfill our duty in confronting the aggression" following the joint Israeli-US attack that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The US says Iran's ballistic missile attacks have fallen by 90 percent since the first day of the conflict, while drone attacks have dropped by 83 percent over the same period.

Considerations

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth signaled that the United States war with Iran will soon escalate during a press conference March 5 at US Central Command. There are growing signs that Kurdish-Iranian armed groups have launched a ground offensive in northwest Iran against the Islamic government, and US officials have reportedly asked Iraqi Kurds to assist in cross-border military operations. The extent of military and civilian casualties is uncertain, as is the trajectory of the conflict.

This description was generated by AI.

• Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the 4-week cessation of hostilities clause:

  • The resolution week count is measured from the start of the ceasefire/cessation period (not the end)

  • If a cessation begins but fails before 4 weeks pass, the time from that failed cessation will be added back to the total conflict duration