Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?
40
Ṁ1kṀ6.5kDec 31
5%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, including reporting on weapons tests (reports that they had the weapon to perform the test are sufficient; they do not need to still be in possession of another one).
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