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Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?
57
Ṁ220Ṁ12k
Dec 31
11%
chance

This question will be resolved as 'yes' if AP, Reuters, and AFP unanimously report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. If one or more of those agencies cease to exist, the reporting from the remaining agency(ies) will be considered sufficient.

Market context
Politics
Geopolitics
Taiwan
China Taiwan potential conflict
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bought Ṁ30 YES

This is looking a lot more likely now

reposted

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What defines full-scale?

@PhilipR Not a raid by some few special forces, but e.g. an effort to take control of the island by many units.

@CertaintyOfVictory I'm doubtful, considering the sociopolitical implications.

@PhilipR seems like NATO would declare war at that point considering all militaries depend on TSMC

@PhilipR Then bet it down.

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