Caroline Ellison was sentenced to two years in prison for her role in the FTX scandal, and is set to begin her sentence on or around November 7, 2024.

Before the FTX collapse, she was a semi-frequent poster on Tumblr, under the username worldoptimization (the blog is currently deactivated but still viewable, and could be reactivated in the future).

This question asks whether she will (publicly) resume posting on Tumblr within a year of her expected release date, under either the existing worldoptimization username or a new one. If Tumblr ceases to exist before then, this will resolve to "NO".

• Update 2025-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria for a 'Yes' Outcome:

  • Real Activity: A one-off post or a post stating no further posts will be made does not count. The market will resolve to "Yes" only if she engages in ongoing, substantive posting on Tumblr, even if infrequently.

• Update: Ellison was released early in January 2026, however, this market will remain conditional on whether she posts "within a year of her expected release date" as per the original description. Despite the early release she has until November 2027 to begin posting regularly for this to resolve to "Yes".