MANIFOLD
Big Mysteries in Physics Survey - Quantum Gravity
7
Ṁ225Ṁ194
2027
23%
String Theory/M-Theory (replacing point particles with extended objects in higher dimensions)
5%
Loop Quantum Gravity (quantizing areas and volumes in spacetime)
6%
Causal Sets (Discrete spacetime atoms, only connected by causal relations)
9%
Hořava–Lifshitz Gravity (breaking speed of light limit at high energies)
21%
Other
13%
No opinion
6%
Causal Dynamical Triangulations (gluing triangulated space in layers of time)
5%
Asymptotic Safety (spacetime becomes a fractal on small scales)
12%
Gravity is not quantum

Background. American Physical Society is holding a Big Mysteries in Physics Survey ( https://physics.aps.org/articles/v18/140) on the toughest questions facing physicists today. One among the questions is posed in this market.

Take the Big Mysteries in Physics Survey
Did time start at the big bang? What happens if you fall into a black hole? What explains the mysterious dark matter? Weigh in on the toughest questions facing physicists today.

Resolution. This market will resolve to the survey result (in percentages) once it becomes available to the public.

Consideration. For reference, the survey result for the same question at a physics conference held in 2024 is shown below (https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.15776). See also https://youtu.be/e7Rq_Vjhqu4?feature=shared

Market context
Technology
Science
Math
Physics
Philosophy
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